Week 7 · CBSSN · Falcon Stadium
Colorado Springs, CO · 60° Fair · 1 mph
All-time series
UNLV 8 – 18 Air Force
26 since 1981 · UNLV 2 straight
Last 2025 UNLV 51–48
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Air Force is favored: 69% to win, by about 8 points.
Betting markets like UNLV instead (51%, by 1.3).
Our model 69%Market 51%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | Air Force by 7.5 |
| Betting market | 51% | UNLV by 1.3 |
| Difference▲ | 18 pts | 8.8 pts |
Gaps this large have landed on our side 59% of the time (183 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
UNLVvsAir Force
77
DE
12 tkl · 3 sacks · 5 TFL
DL
UNLV +968
DL
3 tkl · 1 sacks · 1 TFL
80
DB
14 tkl · 3 INT · 4 PD
DB
UNLV +971
DB
18 tkl · 1 INT · 3 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened UNLV -2, now -1.3: moved 0.8 points toward Air Force
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.