Week 7 · MW+ · Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX · 69° Heavy Rain Shower · 6 mph
All-time series
San José State 5 – 5 UTEP
10 since 1966
Last 2004 UTEP 38–20
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
San José State is favored: 67% to win, by about 7 points.
Betting markets like San José State a bit more (74%, by 7.5).
Our model 67%Market 74%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | San José State by 6.6 |
| Betting market | 74% | San José State by 7.5 |
| Difference | 7 pts | 0.9 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
San José StatevsUTEP
83
DL
17 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL
DL
SJSU +1172
DE
9 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened San José State -9.5, now -7.5: moved 2 points toward UTEP
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.