Week 7 · ESPNU · Alamodome
San Antonio, TX · Indoors
All-time series
First meeting
First meeting on file.
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
UTSA is favored: 64% to win, by about 5 points.
Betting markets like UTSA a bit more (68%, by 6.8).
Our model 64%Market 68%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | UTSA by 5.4 |
| Betting market | 68% | UTSA by 6.8 |
| Difference | 4 pts | 1.3 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
NavyvsUTSA
80
LB
37 tkl · 6 TFL · 4 sacks
LB
NAVY +377
LB
46 tkl · 2 TFL · 1 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened UTSA -6.8, now -6.8: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.