Week 7 · CBSSN · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
San Marcos, TX · 84° · 10 mph
All-time series
First meeting
First meeting on file.
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Texas State is favored: 79% to win, by about 13 points.
Betting markets like Texas State a bit more (81%, by 14.3).
Our model 79%Market 81%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | Texas State by 12.5 |
| Betting market | 81% | Texas State by 14.3 |
| Difference | 2 pts | 1.7 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
Colorado StatevsTexas State
82
RB
409 yds · 3 TD · 12 rec
RB
CSU +478
RB
614 yds · 1 TD · 6 rec
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Texas State -13, now -14.3: moved 1.3 points toward Texas State
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.