Week 7 · CBSSN · Snapdragon Stadium
San Diego, CA · 69° · 2 mph
All-time series
Fresno State 13 – 19 San Diego State
32 since 1969 · SDSU 2 straight
Last 2025 San Diego State 23–0
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Fresno State is favored: 67% to win, by about 7 points.
Betting markets like Fresno State a bit more (73%, by 7.5).
Our model 67%Market 73%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | Fresno State by 6.7 |
| Betting market | 73% | Fresno State by 7.5 |
| Difference | 6 pts | 0.8 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
Fresno StatevsSan Diego State
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Fresno State -8.3, now -7.5: moved 0.8 points toward San Diego State
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.