Heated rivalry
Week 13 · Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA · Forecast TBA
All-time series
USC 54 – 34 UCLA
95 since 1929 · 7 ties · USC 2 straight
Last 2025 USC 29–10
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
UCLA is favored: 64% to win, by about 6 points.
Betting markets like USC instead (79%, by 10.5).
Our model 64%Market 79%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | UCLA by 5.6 |
| Betting market | 79% | USC by 10.5 |
| Difference▲ | 15 pts | 16.1 pts |
Gaps this large have landed on our side 59% of the time (183 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
USCvsUCLA
87
QB
2,045 yds · 18 TD · 3 INT
QB
USC +2760
QB
982 yds · 4 TD · 4 INT
76
RB
595 yds · 4 TD · 4 rec
RB
UCLA +1490
RB
548 yds · 10 TD · 11 rec
70
LB
28 tkl · 2 TFL · 0.5 sacks
LB
UCLA +1888
LB
40 tkl · 7 TFL · 3 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened USC -10.5, now -10.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.