Scorebook
Join
Games / Week 7 / Penn State @ Michigan
74
Away
Penn State
Nittany Lions
#33 · 3-3
Week 7 · Michigan Stadium
Ann Arbor, MI · 45° · 10 mph
All-time series
Penn State 10 – 17 Michigan
27 since 1993 · MICH 3 straight
Last 2023 Michigan 24–15
74
Michigan
Wolverines
#34 · 3-2
Home
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff

Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.

Model vs market

Michigan is favored: 56% to win, by about 2 points.

Betting markets like Michigan a bit more (67%, by 6.5).

Our model 56%Market 67%
Win chanceExpected margin
Our model56%Michigan by 2.5
Betting market67%Michigan by 6.5
Difference11 pts4 pts

Gaps this size have landed on our side 54% of the time (613 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →

The Matchup

Penn StatevsMichigan
71
QB
Rocco Becht
1,397 yds · 11 TD · 3 INT
QB
PSU +4
67
QB
Bryce Underwood
881 yds · 5 TD · 4 INT
64
RB
Carson Hansen
227 yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
RB
MICH +9
73
RB
Jordan Marshall
244 yds · 3 TD · 3 rec
70
WR
Chase Sowell
23 rec · 359 yds · 2 TD
WR
MICH +10
80
WR
JJ Buchanan
24 rec · 446 yds · 4 TD
78
TE
Gabe Burkle
4 rec · 33 yds · 0 TD
TE
PSU +7
71
TE
Zack Marshall
0 rec · 0 yds · 0 TD
74
OL
Anthony Donkoh
6 starts
OL
even
74
OL
Evan Link
4 starts
79
DE
Yvan Kemajou
13 tkl · 1 sacks · 2.5 TFL
DL
MICH +6
85
DE
John Henry Daley
16 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
90
LB
Tony Rojas★
44 tkl · 8.5 TFL · 4 sacks
0.05 interceptions per gameBall Hawk0.66 TFL per gameBackfield Wrecker+1
LB
PSU +13
77
LB
Troy Bowles
40 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 0 sacks
87
CB
Audavion Collins
11 tkl · 0 INT · 7 PD
0.49 pass breakups per gameLockdown
DB
PSU +1
86
CB
Smith Snowden
14 tkl · 1 INT · 2 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Market line historyWhat’s this?

Opened Michigan -5.8, now -6.5: moved 0.8 points toward Michigan

Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.