Week 11 · Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, FL · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Duke 5 – 16 Miami
21 since 1976
Last 2024 Miami 53–31
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Miami is favored: 95% to win, by about 25 points.
Betting markets like Miami a bit less (91%, by 21).
Our model 95%Market 91%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 95% | Miami by 25.0 |
| Betting market | 91% | Miami by 21 |
| Difference | 4 pts | 4 pts |
Gaps this size have landed on our side 54% of the time (613 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
DukevsMiami
61
QB
980 yds · 7 TD · 1 INT
QB
MIA +2889
QB
1,438 yds · 15 TD · 0 INT
88
RB
743 yds · 8 TD · 17 rec
RB
DUKE +1078
RB
307 yds · 5 TD · 4 rec
65
WR
9 rec · 111 yds · 2 TD
WR
MIA +2893
WR
39 rec · 604 yds · 6 TD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Miami -21, now -21: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.