Week 10 · NBC · Notre Dame Stadium
Notre Dame, IN · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Miami 9 – 18 Notre Dame
28 since 1955 · 1 tie · MIA 2 straight
Last 2025 Miami 27–24
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Notre Dame is favored: 67% to win, by about 7 points.
Betting markets agree (68%, by 6.5).
Our model 67%Market 68%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | Notre Dame by 6.8 |
| Betting market | 68% | Notre Dame by 6.5 |
| Difference | 1 pts | 0.3 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
MiamivsNotre Dame
89
QB
1,438 yds · 15 TD · 0 INT
QB
MIA +678
RB
307 yds · 5 TD · 4 rec
RB
even78
RB
409 yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
93
WR
39 rec · 604 yds · 6 TD
WR
MIA +1281
WR
28 rec · 387 yds · 4 TD
84
DL
5 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
DL
ND +1094
DL
17 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL
77
LB
18 tkl · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
LB
ND +279
LB
30 tkl · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Notre Dame -6.5, now -6.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.