Week 8 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
University Park, TX · Forecast TBA
All-time series
California 1 – 2 SMU
3 since 1957
Last 2025 California 38–35
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
SMU is favored: 81% to win, by about 14 points.
No betting line yet.
Our model 81%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 81% | SMU by 13.5 |
| Betting market | — | — |
| Difference | — | — |
The Matchup
CaliforniavsSMU
74
DL
14 tkl · 0 sacks · 0.5 TFL
DL
SMU +1084
DE
16 tkl · 4.5 sacks · 6 TFL
77
LB
29 tkl · 4 TFL · 3 sacks
LB
CAL +176
LB
16 tkl · 3 TFL · 1.5 sacks
80
DB
27 tkl · 5 INT · 1 PD
DB
CAL +476
S
29 tkl · 0 INT · 3 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.