Heated rivalry
Week 7 · ESPN2 · Wallace Wade Stadium
Durham, NC · 66° Cloudy · 6 mph
All-time series
North Carolina 63 – 38 Duke
105 since 1922 · 4 ties · DUKE 2 straight
Last 2025 Duke 32–25
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Duke is favored: 61% to win, by about 4 points.
Betting markets agree (60%, by 3).
Our model 61%Market 60%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | Duke by 4.1 |
| Betting market | 60% | Duke by 3 |
| Difference | 1 pts | 1.1 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
North CarolinavsDuke
79
TE
22 rec · 262 yds · 4 TD
TE
DUKE +180
TE
19 rec · 234 yds · 0 TD
83
DL
29 tkl · 6.5 sacks · 9.5 TFL
DL
UNC +578
DE
11 tkl · 2 sacks · 4.5 TFL
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Duke -3.5, now -3: moved 0.5 points toward North Carolina
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.