Week 11 · Kyle Field
College Station, TX · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Tennessee 3 – 2 Texas A&M
5 since 1957
Last 2023 Tennessee 20–13
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Tennessee is favored: 52% to win, by about 1 points.
Betting markets like Texas A&M instead (75%, by 8.5).
Our model 52%Market 75%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | Tennessee by 0.6 |
| Betting market | 75% | Texas A&M by 8.5 |
| Difference▲ | 23 pts | 9.1 pts |
Gaps this large have landed on our side 59% of the time (183 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
TennesseevsTexas A&M
89
DL
22 tkl · 5 sacks · 10 TFL
DL
TENN +1079
DE
21 tkl · 1 sacks · 3 TFL
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Texas A&M -8.5, now -8.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.