Week 11 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Baton Rouge, LA · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Texas 8 – 7 LSU
16 since 1902 · 1 tie
Last 2019 LSU 45–38
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
LSU is favored: 55% to win, by about 2 points.
Betting markets like Texas instead (56%, by 2.5).
Our model 55%Market 56%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | LSU by 2.0 |
| Betting market | 56% | Texas by 2.5 |
| Difference | 1 pts | 4.5 pts |
Gaps this size have landed on our side 54% of the time (613 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
TexasvsLSU
82
WR
16 rec · 304 yds · 5 TD
WR
LSU +183
WR
21 rec · 371 yds · 3 TD
96
EDGE
16 tkl · 9 sacks · 11.5 TFL
DL
TEX +393
DE
26 tkl · 8 sacks · 11 TFL
90
LB
42 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 1 sacks
LB
TEX +981
LB
42 tkl · 2 TFL · 0 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Texas -2.5, now -2.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.