Week 7 · Fox · TDECU Stadium
Houston, TX · 90° · 6 mph
All-time series
Oklahoma State 10 – 11 Houston
22 since 1951 · 1 tie
Last 2025 Houston 39–17
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Houston is favored: 81% to win, by about 14 points.
Betting markets like Houston a bit less (63%, by 4.8).
Our model 81%Market 63%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 81% | Houston by 13.5 |
| Betting market | 63% | Houston by 4.8 |
| Difference▲ | 18 pts | 8.8 pts |
Gaps this large have landed on our side 59% of the time (183 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
Oklahoma StatevsHouston
78
QB
1,575 yds · 13 TD · 5 INT
QB
HOU +482
QB
1,427 yds · 15 TD · 1 INT
62
TE
19 rec · 238 yds · 1 TD
TE
HOU +2688
TE
33 rec · 399 yds · 6 TD
76
LB
53 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1 sacks
LB
HOU +379
LB
11 tkl · 2 TFL · 1.5 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Houston -4, now -4.8: moved 0.8 points toward Houston
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.