Week 7 · TNT · Milan Puskar Stadium
Morgantown, WV · 53° · 12 mph
All-time series
Cincinnati 3 – 18 West Virginia
22 since 1921 · 1 tie · WVU 4 straight
Last 2024 West Virginia 31–24
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
West Virginia is favored: 57% to win, by about 3 points.
Betting markets like West Virginia a bit less (53%, by 1.8).
Our model 57%Market 53%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | West Virginia by 2.6 |
| Betting market | 53% | West Virginia by 1.8 |
| Difference | 4 pts | 0.9 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
CincinnativsWest Virginia
72
QB
949 yds · 6 TD · 0 INT
QB
CIN +270
QB
1,055 yds · 7 TD · 1 INT
79
RB
330 yds · 6 TD · 8 rec
RB
WVU +174
LB
36 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 2 sacks
LB
even74
LB
40 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened West Virginia -1.5, now -1.8: moved 0.3 points toward West Virginia
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.