Week 7 · ABC · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Provo, UT · 57° · 2 mph
All-time series
Notre Dame 7 – 2 BYU
9 since 1992 · ND 4 straight
Last 2022 Notre Dame 28–20
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Notre Dame is favored: 78% to win, by about 12 points.
Betting markets like Notre Dame a bit less (77%, by 10.5).
Our model 78%Market 77%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | Notre Dame by 12.0 |
| Betting market | 77% | Notre Dame by 10.5 |
| Difference | 1 pts | 1.5 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
Notre DamevsBYU
78
RB
409 yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
RB
ND +1167
RB
176 yds · 2 TD · 1 rec
94
DL
17 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL
DL
ND +1579
DE
11 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 6.5 TFL
79
LB
30 tkl · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
LB
BYU +180
LB
26 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.5 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Notre Dame -11, now -10.5: moved 0.5 points toward BYU
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.