Bitter rivalry
Week 13 · ABC · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Oxford, MS · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Mississippi State 47 – 67 Ole Miss
119 since 1902 · 5 ties · MISS 3 straight
Last 2025 Ole Miss 38–19
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Ole Miss is favored: 69% to win, by about 8 points.
Betting markets like Ole Miss a bit more (82%, by 14.5).
Our model 69%Market 82%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | Ole Miss by 7.6 |
| Betting market | 82% | Ole Miss by 14.5 |
| Difference | 13 pts | 6.9 pts |
Gaps this size have landed on our side 54% of the time (613 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
Mississippi StatevsOle Miss
80
QB
1,450 yds · 17 TD · 4 INT
QB
MISS +383
QB
1,435 yds · 11 TD · 4 INT
78
RB
403 yds · 3 TD · 9 rec
RB
MSST +375
RB
230 yds · 5 TD · 7 rec
88
WR
40 rec · 574 yds · 5 TD
WR
MSST +286
WR
32 rec · 503 yds · 5 TD
74
LB
31 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 2 sacks
LB
MISS +781
LB
19 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.5 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Ole Miss -14.5, now -14.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.