Bitter rivalry
Week 13 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Tuscaloosa, AL · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Auburn 32 – 51 Alabama
84 since 1902 · 1 tie · ALA 6 straight
Last 2025 Alabama 27–20
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Alabama is favored: 90% to win, by about 20 points.
Betting markets like Alabama a bit less (78%, by 10).
Our model 90%Market 78%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 90% | Alabama by 19.7 |
| Betting market | 78% | Alabama by 10 |
| Difference▲ | 12 pts | 9.7 pts |
Gaps this large have landed on our side 59% of the time (183 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
AuburnvsAlabama
70
QB
1,052 yds · 7 TD · 7 INT
QB
ALA +1787
QB
1,599 yds · 12 TD · 2 INT
75
WR
29 rec · 322 yds · 1 TD
WR
ALA +580
WR
23 rec · 415 yds · 4 TD
92
LB
37 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3 sacks
LB
ALA +193
LB
18 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 2.5 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Alabama -10, now -10: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.