Week 12 · Neyland Stadium
Knoxville, TN · Forecast TBA
All-time series
LSU 10 – 21 Tennessee
34 since 1925 · 3 ties
Last 2022 Tennessee 40–13
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
LSU is favored: 58% to win, by about 3 points.
Betting markets like LSU a bit less (52%, by 1.5).
Our model 58%Market 52%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | LSU by 3.3 |
| Betting market | 52% | LSU by 1.5 |
| Difference | 6 pts | 1.8 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
LSUvsTennessee
93
DE
26 tkl · 8 sacks · 11 TFL
DL
LSU +489
DL
22 tkl · 5 sacks · 10 TFL
81
LB
42 tkl · 2 TFL · 0 sacks
LB
TENN +485
LB
38 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 2 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened LSU -1.5, now -1.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.