Heated rivalry
Week 7 · Neyland Stadium
Knoxville, TN · 63° · 7 mph
All-time series
Alabama 61 – 39 Tennessee
107 since 1903 · 7 ties
Last 2025 Alabama 37–20
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Alabama is favored: 72% to win, by about 9 points.
Betting markets agree (71%, by 8.8).
Our model 72%Market 71%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | Alabama by 9.2 |
| Betting market | 71% | Alabama by 8.8 |
| Difference | 1 pts | 0.4 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
AlabamavsTennessee
87
QB
1,599 yds · 12 TD · 2 INT
QB
ALA +2364
QB
395 yds · 2 TD · 2 INT
81
DL
25 tkl · 3 sacks · 4.5 TFL
DL
TENN +889
DL
22 tkl · 5 sacks · 10 TFL
93
LB
18 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 2.5 sacks
LB
ALA +885
LB
38 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 2 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Alabama -7, now -8.8: moved 1.8 points toward Alabama
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.