Week 7 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Baton Rouge, LA · 84° · 6 mph
All-time series
Mississippi State 37 – 74 LSU
114 since 1902 · 3 ties · LSU 3 straight
Last 2023 LSU 41–14
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
LSU is favored: 80% to win, by about 13 points.
Betting markets agree (79%, by 14).
Our model 80%Market 79%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 80% | LSU by 13.0 |
| Betting market | 79% | LSU by 14 |
| Difference | 1 pts | 1 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
Mississippi StatevsLSU
78
RB
403 yds · 3 TD · 9 rec
RB
MSST +1266
RB
483 yds · 5 TD · 18 rec
88
WR
40 rec · 574 yds · 5 TD
WR
MSST +583
WR
21 rec · 371 yds · 3 TD
77
DL
13 tkl · 2 sacks · 3.5 TFL
DL
LSU +1693
DE
26 tkl · 8 sacks · 11 TFL
74
LB
31 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 2 sacks
LB
LSU +781
LB
42 tkl · 2 TFL · 0 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened LSU -10.5, now -14: moved 3.5 points toward LSU
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.