Week 7 · ESPN2 · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Huntsville, TX · 80° · 9 mph
All-time series
Western Kentucky 3 – 1 Sam Houston
4 since 2004 · WKU 3 straight
Last 2025 Western Kentucky 41–24
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Sam Houston is favored: 55% to win, by about 2 points.
Betting markets like Western Kentucky instead (52%, by 1.5).
Our model 55%Market 52%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | Sam Houston by 2.0 |
| Betting market | 52% | Western Kentucky by 1.5 |
| Difference | 3 pts | 3.5 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 49% of the time (891 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
Western KentuckyvsSam Houston
73
LB
29 tkl · 3 TFL · 0 sacks
LB
SHSU +174
LB
9 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 2.5 sacks
78
DB
54 tkl · 0 INT · 1 PD
DB
WKU +474
CB
15 tkl · 0 INT · 5 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Western Kentucky -1, now -1.5: moved 0.5 points toward Western Kentucky
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.