Week 7 · ESPN+ · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Bowling Green, OH · 57° · 7 mph
All-time series
Ball State 9 – 21 Bowling Green
31 since 1968 · 1 tie · BGSU 3 straight
Last 2024 Bowling Green 38–13
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Bowling Green is favored: 67% to win, by about 7 points.
Betting markets like Bowling Green a bit more (70%, by 6.5).
Our model 67%Market 70%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | Bowling Green by 6.8 |
| Betting market | 70% | Bowling Green by 6.5 |
| Difference | 3 pts | 0.3 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
Ball StatevsBowling Green
67
DE
14 tkl · 0 sacks · 0 TFL
DL
BGSU +2087
DE
15 tkl · 7 sacks · 7 TFL
70
DB
10 tkl · 1 INT · 2 PD
DB
BGSU +575
S
45 tkl · 0 INT · 1 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Bowling Green -7.8, now -6.5: moved 1.3 points toward Ball State
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.