Week 7 · CBSSN · Fargodome
Fargo, ND · Indoors
All-time series
First meeting
First meeting on file.
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
North Dakota State is favored: 81% to win, by about 13 points.
Betting markets like North Dakota State a bit more (84%, by 14.5).
Our model 81%Market 84%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 81% | North Dakota State by 13.4 |
| Betting market | 84% | North Dakota State by 14.5 |
| Difference | 3 pts | 1.1 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
NevadavsNorth Dakota State
74
LB
60 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 2.5 sacks
LB
NDSU +1185
LB
44 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1.5 sacks
74
DB
20 tkl · 0 INT · 4 PD
DB
NDSU +478
CB
14 tkl · 2 INT · 2 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened North Dakota State -15, now -14.5: moved 0.5 points toward Nevada
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.