Week 7 · ESPN · Protective Stadium
Birmingham, AL · 80° Fair · 2 mph
All-time series
East Carolina 9 – 4 UAB
13 since 1998 · ECU 7 straight
Last 2013 East Carolina 63–14
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
East Carolina is favored: 65% to win, by about 6 points.
Betting markets like East Carolina a bit less (63%, by 4.3).
Our model 65%Market 63%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | East Carolina by 6.1 |
| Betting market | 63% | East Carolina by 4.3 |
| Difference | 2 pts | 1.8 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
East CarolinavsUAB
79
RB
386 yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
RB
ECU +1564
RB
403 yds · 0 TD · 4 rec
77
LB
37 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 0.5 sacks
LB
ECU +176
LB
25 tkl · 8 TFL · 5 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened East Carolina -5.5, now -4.3: moved 1.3 points toward UAB
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.