Week 7 · Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA · 65° · 2 mph
All-time series
Wisconsin 4 – 7 UCLA
11 since 1938 · WIS 3 straight
Last 2000 Wisconsin 21–20
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
UCLA is favored: 70% to win, by about 8 points.
Betting markets like UCLA a bit less (59%, by 2.5).
Our model 70%Market 59%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | UCLA by 8.3 |
| Betting market | 59% | UCLA by 2.5 |
| Difference | 11 pts | 5.8 pts |
Gaps this size have landed on our side 54% of the time (613 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
WisconsinvsUCLA
70
RB
190 yds · 1 TD · 2 rec
RB
UCLA +2090
RB
548 yds · 10 TD · 11 rec
83
LB
15 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 2.5 sacks
LB
UCLA +588
LB
40 tkl · 7 TFL · 3 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened UCLA -3.3, now -2.5: moved 0.8 points toward Wisconsin
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.