Week 12 · NBC · Notre Dame Stadium
Notre Dame, IN · Forecast TBA
All-time series
SMU 3 – 10 Notre Dame
13 since 1930 · ND 2 straight
Last 1989 Notre Dame 59–6
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Notre Dame is favored: 96% to win, by about 27 points.
Betting markets like Notre Dame a bit less (89%, by 17.5).
Our model 96%Market 89%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 96% | Notre Dame by 27.4 |
| Betting market | 89% | Notre Dame by 17.5 |
| Difference▲ | 7 pts | 9.9 pts |
Gaps this large have landed on our side 59% of the time (183 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
SMUvsNotre Dame
75
RB
418 yds · 6 TD · 8 rec
RB
ND +378
RB
409 yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
84
DE
16 tkl · 4.5 sacks · 6 TFL
DL
ND +1094
DL
17 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL
76
LB
16 tkl · 3 TFL · 1.5 sacks
LB
ND +379
LB
30 tkl · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Notre Dame -17.5, now -17.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.