Bitter rivalry
Week 10 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Baton Rouge, LA · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Alabama 58 – 26 LSU
89 since 1902 · 5 ties · ALA 3 straight
Last 2025 Alabama 20–9
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Alabama is favored: 58% to win, by about 3 points.
Betting markets like LSU instead (62%, by 3.5).
Our model 58%Market 62%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | Alabama by 3.3 |
| Betting market | 62% | LSU by 3.5 |
| Difference | 4 pts | 6.8 pts |
Gaps this size have landed on our side 54% of the time (613 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
AlabamavsLSU
87
QB
1,599 yds · 12 TD · 2 INT
QB
ALA +681
QB
1,495 yds · 10 TD · 8 INT
81
DL
25 tkl · 3 sacks · 4.5 TFL
DL
LSU +1293
DE
26 tkl · 8 sacks · 11 TFL
93
LB
18 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 2.5 sacks
LB
ALA +1281
LB
42 tkl · 2 TFL · 0 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened LSU -3.5, now -3.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.