Week 8 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Tuscaloosa, AL · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Texas A&M 3 – 13 Alabama
16 since 1941 · ALA 2 straight
Last 2023 Alabama 26–20
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Alabama is favored: 87% to win, by about 18 points.
Betting markets like Alabama a bit less (56%, by 2.5).
Our model 87%Market 56%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 87% | Alabama by 17.6 |
| Betting market | 56% | Alabama by 2.5 |
| Difference▲ | 31 pts | 15.1 pts |
Gaps this large have landed on our side 59% of the time (183 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
Texas A&MvsAlabama
62
QB
1,034 yds · 6 TD · 6 INT
QB
ALA +2587
QB
1,599 yds · 12 TD · 2 INT
75
WR
7 rec · 56 yds · 0 TD
WR
ALA +580
WR
23 rec · 415 yds · 4 TD
77
LB
30 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0 sacks
LB
ALA +1693
LB
18 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 2.5 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Alabama -2.5, now -2.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.