Scott Shafer

Head coach

Headline rating: as head coach. Every role he has been rated in is below.

Chemistry

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index in development

Seasons here—

Programs2

Stints2

Career path

Head-coaching stints since 1936; assistant roles since 2016

2017–2023Middle TennesseeDefensive Coordinator/Safeties

2013–2015SyracuseHead Coach

As head coach

Rating63Peak63Career62

2013–2015 · 3 seasonsRecord 13-23National titles 0Great seasons 0 (top ~7% of all teams that year)Career: too early to rank all-time (8+ seasons as a head coach)

Rating 63: his whole career, recent seasons weighted most, measured as how far his teams stood above their era, crediting him with half of what each program already was when he arrived (about the share that, historically, follows a coach to his next job), fading as the program becomes his own.
Peak 63: best five-season stretch, 2013–2015 at Syracuse (13-23), taking over an average program.

Rating = who he is: his whole head-coaching career (since 1936), weighted toward recent years — how far his teams stood above their contemporaries, how much he lifted programs, his great seasons and titles. Form = the last two seasons. Career = the all-time ranking number.

Season	Team	Record	Season rank	vs contemporaries
2015	Syracuse	4-8	#77	-0.07 SD
2014	Syracuse	3-9	#76	-0.30 SD
2013	Syracuse	6-6	#64	+0.04 SD

Season rank = his team among all major-college teams that year; vs contemporaries = how far above the average team (in standard deviations).

As defensive coordinator

Rating64Peak72

His defense against its preseason projection (value over expectation) and the unit's opponent-adjusted quality.

Season	Team	Unit (EPA/play)	Over expectation	Season score
2023	Middle Tennessee	-0.02	-0.02	-0.27
2022	Middle Tennessee	0.04	0.06	0.74
2021	Middle Tennessee	0.00	0.06	0.55
2020	Middle Tennessee	-0.11	-0.07	-1.23
2019	Middle Tennessee	-0.07	-0.06	-0.87
2018	Middle Tennessee	0.03	0.03	0.39
2017	Middle Tennessee	-0.00	0.04	0.40

Season score: 0 = an average season in this role; positive = better.